Hyperliquid Kraken US Access: Real, But Slow

Not yet, and probably not this year. In late August, Bloomberg reported that Payward — the parent company of Kraken — has been in talks with the CFTC about routing Hyperliquid-linked perpetual futures through its regulated Bitnomial subsidiary, a structure that would let US traders access Hyperliquid-style markets without Hyperliquid itself needing a US license. That's a genuine path, and it's notable that a mainstream, licensed exchange operator is the one building it.

But "in talks" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. No approval has been granted. Former SEC counsel estimate the rulemaking and review process alone could take 10 to 12 months from here, which puts a realistic go-live somewhere in 2027, not 2026. CFTC Chair Selig has talked publicly about "fair access and responsible innovation" for platforms like Hyperliquid, and Trump has spoken favorably about bringing it onshore — both signal intent, neither is a decision. Treat this as a slow regulatory grind with political tailwinds, not a deal on the verge of closing.

The mechanism matters because it explains why this isn't as simple as "Hyperliquid applies for a license." Bitnomial is already a CFTC-regulated futures exchange and clearinghouse. Wrapping Hyperliquid-linked products inside that existing regulatory shell is a faster route than Hyperliquid building its own compliance infrastructure from scratch — but it still requires the CFTC to sign off on a novel structure connecting a permissionless, largely anonymous DeFi perps venue to a regulated US clearing entity. That's the kind of decision regulators take slowly even without opposition. And right now, there is opposition.

In early September, blockchain analytics firm Arkham traced roughly $30 million in bitcoin linked to North Korea's Lazarus Group being sold through Hyperliquid and its Hyperunit bridge, then moved on to KuCoin, Kraken and LBank. The trace is real and on-chain, not speculation — Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic published the wallet path publicly.

What matters here isn't that this proves Hyperliquid is compromised; permissionless exchanges get touched by illicit flows the way any open financial rail can be. What matters is timing. Since May, incumbent derivatives giants CME and ICE have been lobbying the CFTC and Capitol Hill that Hyperliquid's anonymous, unpermissioned structure makes it a magnet for manipulation and sanctions evasion. The Lazarus flow is, as one report bluntly put it, CME's "best weapon" to slow or block Hyperliquid's US debut — it lands exactly inside that months-old fight and gives incumbents a concrete, sanctioned-entity example to wave in front of regulators and lawmakers. Hyperliquid has publicly pushed back, calling the manipulation claims "unfounded concerns," but it hasn't yet detailed a specific compliance response to the Lazarus wallets themselves.

The chain to watch: driver (the Lazarus flow) leads to mechanism (fresh ammunition for CME and ICE's existing lobbying campaign) leads to likely outcome — added scrutiny and possible delay on the Bitnomial review, not necessarily its collapse.

There's a separate, unrelated story getting bundled into this week's news cycle: Multicoin Capital, an early Hyperliquid backer, has been moving recurring tranches of HYPE — more than $50 million since July — to Coinbase Prime, generally near record highs. That's worth watching as a supply overhang, but it isn't new information tied to the Lazarus headlines; it's an ongoing pattern that's been running for two months. Treat it as background noise on the sell side near the all-time high, not as a reaction to the laundering story or the CFTC talks.

The base case is that talks continue through 2026 without producing anything resembling real US retail access, while the Lazarus story raises the political cost of approving the Bitnomial structure without necessarily killing it. Price action in the meantime is being driven mainly by ETF and buyback demand absorbing this week's unlock, not by this specific regulatory news.

Two things could break that base case. Faster: if Selig's CFTC moves ahead of the 10-12 month estimate — Trump's public backing gives it political cover to — and Hyperliquid shows a visible compliance response, like freezing or flagging Lazarus-linked wallets, that would undercut the AML argument before it reaches congressional hearings. Slower, or worse: if CME and ICE succeed in turning the Lazarus flow into hearings or added compliance conditions, pushing Bitnomial approval past 2027, or if a second sanctioned-entity flow surfaces through Hyperliquid. That would be far more damaging than this one, because it would turn a one-off talking point into a pattern regulators can't ignore.

For now, the honest read is that hyperliquid kraken us access is a real, live regulatory conversation with genuine momentum behind it, sitting inside a lobbying fight that just got a fresh piece of ammunition. Neither the access talks nor the Lazarus story is close to resolved, and HYPE's price — hovering just under its September 6 high — currently reflects flows unrelated to either.